Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

Chris Pappas is priced at an extremely high 89¢ probability with minimal liquidity ($22 daily volume despite $21.7M open interest), suggesting strong consensus but limited recent trading activity. The massive 2055.8% implied yield on "No" reflects the extreme skew—a small contrarian bet could return substantial gains if Pappas fails to secure the nomination, though this also indicates very few traders are willing to take that position. A 1¢ cross-venue gap with Kalshi (90¢) is negligible, but the recent 2¢ price decline over seven days and elevated cliff risk score of 8 warrant monitoring as we approach the September 2026 primary.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire. If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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