Will Yeremy Pino be in the Spain World Cup final squad?

60¢mid

Bid/Ask 55/65¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jun 16, 2026·58d remaining

KXWCSQUAD-26ESP-YPIN

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows zero liquidity with no open interest or 24-hour volume, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate. The extreme implied yields (508% for Yes, 759% for No) reflect the illiquidity rather than genuine market conviction, and the 10¢ spread is unusually wide for a binary contract. With 59 days until the June 2026 close and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this appears to be an inactive market awaiting either liquidity injection or resolution as the World Cup squad selection approaches.

Resolution rules

If Yeremy Pino is selected for the final squad for the Spain national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 516.4%

IY (No) 771.4%

Adj IY 386%

CRI 1

Overround 22.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	516.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	771.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	386%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	22.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 8:22:19 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 8:08:31 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26ESP-YPIN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →