New Pro Football CBA agreed before the 2027-28 season?
Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that New Pro Football CBA agreed before the 2027-28 season?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Polymarket, closing September 1, 2027. This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $61k open interest and a massive 56¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential pricing unreliability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $61k open interest and a massive 56¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential pricing unreliability. The 38¢ price implies only a 38% probability of a CBA by August 2027, yet the "Yes" side offers a 113.6% annualized yield—an unusually high risk premium that may reflect either genuine uncertainty about negotiations or simply the illiquid market's poor price discovery. The realized volatility of 1903% and sharp 7-day decline from 49¢ to 41¢ indicate this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded contract with limited information flow (5.6 arrivals/hour), making it unreliable for serious positioning.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the NFL and NFLPA sign a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by August 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the NFL and the NFL Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xa7f8484bdcd23191ff19ff2e91ec504a4825e0bcbf80e6a96ad3af72840b9e05 yes 100