Rain in Austin in Apr 2026?

77¢

Bid/Ask 82/85¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $329·OI $2,372.08·Closes May 1, 2026·13d remaining

KXRAINAUSM-26APR-3

7-day price431 snapshots · 8 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market is pricing April rain in Austin at an extremely high 88% probability with just 13 days to expiry, yet the extraordinarily skewed yield structure (491% for Yes vs. 15,766% for No) suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the modest $2,372 open interest. The realized volatility of 105,617% and cliff risk index of 6 indicate this contract exhibits unstable pricing dynamics typical of thin markets, while the recent 5-cent price climb from 83¢ to 85¢ may reflect late positioning ahead of resolution rather than fundamental information arrival.

Resolution rules

If the total precipitation at CLIAUS in Austin in Apr 2026 is strictly greater than 3 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 625.6%

IY (No) 12983.4%

Adj IY 12191%

CRI 5

RV 1384%

VR 5.32

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	625.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12983.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	12191%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1384%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.32	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 8:41:04 AM

Observability lowEvent type weather

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 8:38:22 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRAINAUSM-26APR-3 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →