Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)

This market has collapsed dramatically from 47¢ to 20¢ over seven days, suggesting sharp downward sentiment revision on Inter Miami's chances of winning by 2+ goals against Real Salt Lake. The extreme 21,547% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a 4 Cliff Risk Index indicates this is a highly illiquid, potentially mispriced position with significant tail risk—the market may be pricing in late-breaking information (1.9 info arrivals per hour) that retail traders haven't fully digested. With only 7 days to expiry and $87,989 open interest concentrated at an unusually low price point, this represents either a contrarian opportunity or a value trap depending on whether the recent price action reflects genuine fundamental deterioration in Miami's win probability.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for April 22 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Inter Miami CF" if Inter Miami CF win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Real Salt Lake". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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Trade