Shanxi Loongs vs Jiangsu Dragons Winner?

The Shanxi Loongs contract has collapsed from 17¢ to 7¢ over seven days, suggesting either new information favoring Jiangsu Dragons or a sharp reassessment of Loongs' chances, yet the extraordinarily high implied yield of 17,476% on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or extreme cliff risk given only 14 days to expiry. With just $12,445 in 24-hour volume against $11,753 open interest and a realized volatility of 1,154%, this market exhibits dangerously low liquidity and high uncertainty, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable for directional bets despite the tight 1¢ spread. The 1.2 information arrivals per hour suggest active news flow that could trigger further sharp moves before the April 18 game.

Resolution rules

If Jiangsu Dragons wins the Shanxi Loongs vs Jiangsu Dragons professional Chinese Basketball Association basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 at 7:35 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade