Will Harry Kane record the most Player of the Match awards during the 2025 UEFA Champions League?

61¢
Bid/Ask 34/88¢·Spread 54¢·Vol $0·OI $16.154·Closes May 31, 2026·43d remaining
0x85ca75b0adad859523569ae4779fd70c55b9a197c58308611f0cbabae1a953dd
7-day price326 snapshots · 13 regime
78¢49¢Apr 8Apr 18

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility with only $2.4 in 24-hour volume against $23.657 open interest, creating a wide 55¢ spread and inflated yield metrics (541.7% for Yes, 1325% for No) that don't reflect realistic betting opportunities. Kane's 61¢ price has declined 4¢ over seven days despite being favored, while the 648% realized volatility and 3.04 vol ratio suggest sharp recent swings driven by low information arrival (2.3/h). With 43 days until expiry and the Champions League still in active play, the market appears thinly traded and potentially mispriced, making it difficult to assess whether Kane's odds genuinely reflect his true chances or simply reflect the venue's illiquidity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who collects the most Player of the Match awards through all rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA Champions League rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 Champions League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/029d-1ebd2e90ac06-6c331a7ee578-1000--every-uefa-champions-league-player-of-the-match/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 524.5%
IY (No) 1396.3%
Adj IY 1396%
CRI 2
RV 571%
VR 2.68
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)524.5%
IY (No)1396.3%
Adj IY1396%
CRI2
RV571%
VR2.68
IAR1.4/h
Overround0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
54¢
Computed
4/18/2026, 8:23:46 AM
Observability lowEvent type sports
Indicators computed 4/18/2026, 8:23:22 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x85ca75b0adad859523569ae4779fd70c55b9a197c58308611f0cbabae1a953dd yes 100

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