What is the current probability for "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 42¢ (42% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 193 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 271.6% and 131.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. The market is pricing a 52% probability of an Anthropic IPO announcement by November 2026, but the extremely high realized volatility of 320% and elevated vol ratio of 2.07 suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing.

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42¢

Bid/Ask 41/49¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $213.72·OI $1,655.36·Closes Nov 1, 2026·193d remaining

KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01

7-day price493 snapshots · 4 regime

48¢41¢ current

Apr 814¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing a 52% probability of an Anthropic IPO announcement by November 2026, but the extremely high realized volatility of 320% and elevated vol ratio of 2.07 suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing. With only $1,351.81 in open interest and an 8¢ spread on Kalshi, liquidity is thin for a binary with 198 days to expiry, making the 225% implied yield on the Yes side potentially illusory given execution risk. The recent 7-day price decline from 47¢ to 45¢ combined with a neutral regime and 1.4 information arrivals per hour indicates the market is gradually repricing downward, though the 2-year timeframe leaves substantial room for corporate action surprises.

Resolution rules

If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 271.6%

IY (No) 131.2%

Adj IY 272%

CRI 1

RV 516%

VR 3.32

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	271.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	131.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	272%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	516%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.32	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:15:26 PM

Observability highEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26NOV01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →