When will OpenAI IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that When will OpenAI IPO?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. The market is pricing in a 40% probability of OpenAI IPO by November 2026, but the extreme 374% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction—evidenced by the $0 trading volume over 24 hours and minimal $4,739 open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 40% probability of OpenAI IPO by November 2026, but the extreme 374% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction—evidenced by the $0 trading volume over 24 hours and minimal $4,739 open interest. The 6¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 40¢ price, and the 247% realized volatility indicates this is a highly speculative micro-market where small trades could move prices dramatically, making the yield figure potentially misleading as a true probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOOPENAI-26NOV01 yes 100