Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely low 5% probability for UK warship transit through the Strait of Hormuz with just 13 days to expiry, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 53,284% implied yield—a massive disconnect suggesting either severe mispricing or that traders believe resolution is virtually impossible at this late stage. The price has collapsed 50% over seven days (from 10¢ to 5¢) amid elevated realized volatility of 659%, indicating significant uncertainty or late-breaking information that shifted sentiment sharply toward No. With $21.4M in 24-hour volume and a narrow 1¢ spread, liquidity is reasonable, but the extreme yield asymmetry and high cliff risk index (19) suggest this is a binary event where the market has largely priced out occurrence, making any Yes position a speculative long-shot bet.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Indicators

Regime

Trade