Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 7¢ price generating a nonsensical 37,530% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe liquidity constraints despite $25.6K in 24-hour volume. The price has collapsed 70% over seven days (from 10¢ to 7¢), indicating either new bearish information or algorithmic selling pressure, though the neutral regime score and tight spread suggest no major news catalyst. With only 13 days to resolution and France's historical naval presence in the Persian Gulf region, the ultra-low probability appears to underweight geopolitical precedent, making this potentially mispriced if interpreted as a routine operational question rather than an extraordinary event.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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