Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?
This contract is priced at 25¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 15¢ bid, 37¢ ask, 22¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$765K
Best sibling
Kash Patel 64¢
Ticker
0x8e2c8409…5b60
Market snapshot
Stephen Miller in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?. The displayed quote is 25¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $27. In the Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? family, this outcome ranks #11 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 13, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC.
Outcome
Stephen Miller
Family rank
#11 of 16
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
25¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$27
Family context
16 outcomes · Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Quote range
13¢-64¢
Family leader
Kash Patel 64¢
Last updated
May 13, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC · 13m ago
Venue identifier: 0x8e2c840905e4089910b2797984e2331e23be0b0071ddcb67c466a120faf05b60. Family volume: $765K.
Price history
25¢ current
+3¢Orderbook snapshot
15 / 37¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x8e2c8409…5b60
Event family
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$765K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Kash Patel 64¢
Current share
0%
Stephen Miller
polymarket · 0x8e2c840905e4089910b2797984e2331e23be0b0071ddcb67c466a120faf05b60
Kash Patel
polymarket · 0xde2be5c360bafeb33cc43bd0a49368ed89371daca90e1cc6da8bf7f93d5bbadf
Kristi Noem
polymarket · 0xc37f85182c9f8e6a25d9ac915e350f29ec6abd34adcfc75b42235214fcf1a8fd
Pete Hegseth
polymarket · 0xeae757a623cf6a8e4d63ab5ebca6739519f87f3506accbfdd75ae514a72bf461
Tulsi Gabbard
polymarket · 0x4f0f481c30d93d0c7c5ffb8a9b69d9690a4da240b0069562af20e08b6ef8dd64
Howard Lutnick
polymarket · 0x6eb86679303704bfc4dc014b21914063124bdd26702a77f5bc1d6d1aa6178483
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
polymarket · 0xbb0d2443a9c76fce0910ca7a602f3a6d56bc676c9a1b078829fd20a782e2560f
Susie Wiles
polymarket · 0xa8ce9e92890d683bee3fb877f69b88fde9fe6665fdd4e078f84f7c91fdf390be
Karoline Leavitt
polymarket · 0x1960b144c14900701330156dfc592272d97e42084ccc28ad4c653bf8c1f2bcb6
Lee Zeldin
polymarket · 0xa9eb387628150ecc2ee19613ae55dc26f7e9e6a24b31ccecdcdae43c7824d2d3
David Sacks
polymarket · 0x41e7c27975bd53fe08a5ab30960934bfea92b60b88f56ee9d9b42b8b0c97d98d
Marco Rubio
polymarket · 0x48a3e95c0bc1b9305e56445a7affcb857fd61e0ae0d78a4778310a1108ceb08a
Scott Bessent
polymarket · 0xe51901c28b674d46cca978bb16790dbb42e291c31ce2acc8faa7bb16960c8eda
Russell Vought
polymarket · 0xa2df577205d2ce04af348ef5d5174259c5990d20784e1a063992c1f155b2ec27
Tom Homan
polymarket · 0xaaf71e9c0dd6115c5e981eb0d3c7a9136d3f527402fde1561441fa9e392d1127
John Ratcliffe
polymarket · 0xc3bbe4f2c5da7562443c176bb95590a33ae534111d6f1682e35aafa4add68213
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.