Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Mark Kelly 2028 Democratic nomination market shows a sharp 4-cent decline over seven days (66¢ to 62¢) despite 625 days until expiry, suggesting deteriorating conviction in his candidacy. The extreme volatility ratio of 1.96 paired with zero 24-hour volume and modest $9,400 open interest indicates illiquidity and potential pricing inefficiency, while the asymmetric implied yields (35.8% Yes vs. 95.3% No) reveal the market is pricing in substantially higher risk for a No resolution. The 2 Cliff Risk Index and 115% realized volatility warrant caution on position sizing given the binary nature and extended timeframe.

Resolution rules

If Mark Kelly announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

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