Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This illiquid market on Mikie Sherrill's 2028 Democratic primary candidacy shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes contracts offering 285% annualized return versus just 12% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of her candidacy probability at 23¢. The $0 24-hour volume and minimal $576.95 open interest indicate virtually no trading activity, making the 6¢ spread potentially misleading as a liquidity measure. With 625 days to resolution and a moderate cliff risk score of 5, the market has time for price discovery, though the current pricing appears driven more by illiquidity than fundamental conviction about Sherrill's nomination intentions.

Resolution rules

If Mikie Sherrill announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade