Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Raphael Warnock nomination market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2.4k open interest, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 124.2% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated relative to the 62% risk-adjusted yield, suggesting the market may be overpricing the probability given Warnock's lack of public campaign signals with 625 days until expiry. The recent 2-cent uptick over seven days and tight 2¢ spread indicate minimal recent activity, so this appears to be a speculative backwater rather than an efficiently-priced contract.

Resolution rules

If Raphael Warnock announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade