Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Kalshi market on Wes Moore's 2028 Democratic primary candidacy is pricing him at 55% odds with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the No side offers a 68.6% annualized yield versus 49.8% for Yes, suggesting the market may be undervaluing tail risk or pricing in significant uncertainty. With only $20,572 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, liquidity is extremely thin, making the 1¢ spread potentially misleading as a true execution cost. The 625-day time horizon to resolution leaves substantial room for political developments, though the flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score suggest current sentiment is relatively stable.

Resolution rules

If Wes Moore announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade