Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028
Jon Stewart is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #15 of 16 inside Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
Price history
12¢ current
−7¢Contract brief
If Jon Stewart announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Jon Stewart
Rank
#15 of 16
Leader
Gavin Newsom 85¢
Range
1¢-85¢
Family volume
$551
Identifier
KX2028DRUN-28-JSTE
Jun 7, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
17¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$4
Family rank
#15 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$551
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 17¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Jon Stewart announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KX2028DRUN-28-JSTE
Event family
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$551
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Gavin Newsom 85¢
Current share
1%
Gavin Newsom
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-GNEW
Andy Beshear
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-ABES
Rahm Emanuel
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-REMA
Chris Murphy
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-CMUR
Cory Booker
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-CBOOK
Kamala Harris
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-KHAR
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-AOC
Wes Moore
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-WMOO
Jon Ossoff
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-JOSS
Elissa Slotkin
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-ESLO
Abigail Spanberger
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-ASPA
Hunter Biden
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-HBID
Chris Van Hollen
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-CHOL
Dean Phillips
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-DPHI
Jon Stewart
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-JSTE
Barack Obama
kalshi · KX2028DRUN-28-BOBA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.