Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This market on Rahm Emanuel's 2028 Democratic nomination bid shows a 72¢ price with extreme asymmetry: the No side offers a 136.3% implied yield versus just 25.0% for Yes, suggesting significant skepticism despite the high probability. The 625-day timeframe and modest $58.52 daily volume create thin liquidity conditions, while the 271% realized volatility and 5.09 vol ratio indicate this contract has experienced substantial price swings—likely driven by political news cycles rather than fundamental shifts in Emanuel's candidacy likelihood. The recent 6-cent rally from 64¢ to 70¢ over seven days warrants monitoring to determine if it reflects genuine conviction or mean-reversion noise.

Resolution rules

If Rahm Emanuel announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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