Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?

86¢

Bid/Ask 84/89¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $240.686·OI $3,509.053·Closes Apr 30, 2026·12d remaining

0xe39092907e7e2dc2574d7005872152c80ca9d800843bf7c5402a91d93400fe29

7-day price689 snapshots · 11 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing an 87% probability of Trump-MBS contact in April 2026, but the extreme 16,075% implied yield on "No" signals severe mispricing—traders are heavily overweighting the "Yes" side despite only 12 days to expiry. With realized volatility at 576% and a cliff risk index of 5, this appears to be a tail-risk market where the low liquidity ($9.1M open interest) and tight 2¢ spread mask potential resolution ambiguity, particularly given the definition cutoff appears incomplete in the provided text.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual talks with Donald Trump between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.3%

IY (No) 18841.5%

Adj IY 18403%

CRI 6

RV 569%

VR 2.39

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	18841.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	18403%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	569%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.39	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	5.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/18/2026, 2:17:22 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 2:23:52 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xe39092907e7e2dc2574d7005872152c80ca9d800843bf7c5402a91d93400fe29 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →