Will Kevin Cramer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

The market has experienced significant downward pressure, declining 11 cents over seven days to 86¢, suggesting growing uncertainty about Cramer's confirmation vote despite the still-high probability. The extreme implied yield on the "No" outcome (2609.6%) combined with elevated realized volatility (251%) and a 15¢ spread indicates thin liquidity ($1,675 open interest) and substantial tail risk, making this market susceptible to sharp repricing on new information. With 73 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.4 events per hour, the high cliff risk index (5) suggests binary event risk that could trigger rapid resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

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