Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year above $20B FDV?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 7¢ spread, suggesting the 22¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the thin order book. The 500% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 39.8% on No, indicating either significant underpricing of tail-risk upside or a highly skeptical market on whether any 2026 launch reaches $20B FDV by year-end. The recent 3¢ price decline over seven days combined with minimal open interest of $2.97M and a Cliff Risk Index of 4 suggests this is a speculative, low-conviction market where the resolution hinges on unpredictable crypto market conditions and the definition of "launch."

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any token launched in 2026 ends the year with an FDV above $20B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” A token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched. The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Indicators

Regime

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