Will Aaron Judge win AL Hank Aaron Award?

34¢

Bid/Ask 29/36¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $424·Closes Dec 8, 2026·234d remaining

KXMLBALHAARON-26-AJUD

7-day price29 snapshots · 3 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The 34¢ price on Kalshi represents a notable 8¢ premium over Polymarket's 26¢ valuation, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or liquidity fragmentation across venues. With zero 24-hour volume despite $424 open interest and a wide 7¢ spread, this market suffers from illiquidity that likely inflates the cross-venue gap and the extreme 381.5% implied yield on the Yes side. The 234-day timeframe to resolution and neutral regime score suggest the market is pricing in genuine uncertainty about Judge's 2026 performance, though traders should account for the thin liquidity when sizing positions.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 25¢(Δ +9¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94IY 525.0%Close-time delta 615h

Resolution rules

If Aaron Judge wins the Pro Baseball American League Hank Aaron Award in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 381.6%

IY (No) 63.7%

Adj IY 145%

CRI 2

Overround 0.1%

LAS 0.24

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	381.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	63.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	145%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.24	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 10:46:06 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 10:38:21 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBALHAARON-26-AJUD yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →