What is the current probability for "Will Adam Steen be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2026. 196 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Adam Steen be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3542.1% and 9.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Adam Steen be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Adam Steen be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Adam Steen be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $6,199.65 open interest, suggesting trapped positions rather than active trading.

████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

10¢

Bid/Ask 5/10¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $5,871.76·Closes Nov 3, 2026·196d remaining

KXGOVIANOMR-26-ASTE

7-day price180 snapshots · 7 regime

17¢5¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $6,199.65 open interest, suggesting trapped positions rather than active trading. The 1031% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the low 16¢ price rather than genuine market conviction, with a concerning 721% realized volatility and 6/10 cliff risk index indicating this contract is prone to sharp, unpredictable moves. With 201 days to expiry and minimal price movement (14¢ to 15¢ over seven days), this appears to be a speculative backwater where the pricing may not reflect true nomination probabilities.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 7¢(Δ +3¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.89IY 11781.3%Close-time delta 3711h

Resolution rules

If Adam Steen wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Iowa Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3542.1%

IY (No) 9.8%

Adj IY 3542%

CRI 19

RV 2938%

VR 3.68

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3542.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3542%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2938%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.68	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:17:18 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVIANOMR-26-ASTE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →