Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 68% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 68¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The "No" side offers an exceptionally high implied yield of 286.5%, suggesting the market is pricing in a very low probability of gas prices exceeding $4.40 by end-2026, yet this extreme skew appears unsupported by recent price action—the contract rallied sharply from 50¢ to 67¢ over seven days before settling at 45¢, indicating potential volatility or disagreement among traders.
Analysis
The "No" side offers an exceptionally high implied yield of 286.5%, suggesting the market is pricing in a very low probability of gas prices exceeding $4.40 by end-2026, yet this extreme skew appears unsupported by recent price action—the contract rallied sharply from 50¢ to 67¢ over seven days before settling at 45¢, indicating potential volatility or disagreement among traders. With only $566.19 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, liquidity is severely constrained, making the 10¢ spread wide relative to the contract value and raising questions about whether the current 45% price reflects genuine market consensus or merely stale positioning.
Also on polymarket at 6¢(Δ +62¢)
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for New York are strictly greater than $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXNY-26DEC31-4.40 yes 100