Will Brad Raffensperger be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$595K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
139 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Burt Jones be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia
Will Burt Jones be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia?: Burt Jones
KXGOVGANOMR-26-BJ
Cluster 2
Will Rick Jackson be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia
Will Rick Jackson be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia?: Rick Jackson
KXGOVGANOMR-26-RJAC
Analysis
This probability indicates roughly a one-in-three chance that Brad Raffensperger will become the Republican nominee for Georgia Governor. The 32% level reflects uncertainty about whether the current Secretary of State—who gained prominence for defending Georgia's 2020 election results—can overcome potential primary opposition from candidates with different standing in the party. Primary contests typically hinge on candidate fundraising, endorsements from sitting officials and major party figures, and turnout among different voter segments. The Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary, currently scheduled for spring 2026, will provide the decisive test of support through actual voting patterns and delegate allocation. Before then, candidate announcement timing, fundraising disclosures, and any significant endorsements from Governor Brian Kemp or other major figures will shape expectations about the nomination race.
- ›No major Republican challenger has yet announced a primary campaign against Raffensperger as of May 2026, affecting perceived competitive intensity
- ›Raffensperger's 2020 election defense created both a loyal base and significant opposition within Trump-aligned Republican factions
- ›Georgia's Republican primary voting patterns in recent cycles demonstrate the influence of Trump endorsements and organized grassroots mobilization on nomination outcomes
- ›Fundraising totals and cash-on-hand reported in FEC filings will indicate which candidates have built viable campaign infrastructure
- ›Formal candidate declarations and primary filing deadlines will clarify the actual field size and competitive dynamics Raffensperger faces
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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