Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%?

92¢mid

Bid/Ask 85/98¢·Spread 13¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·13d remaining

KXEZGDPQOQF-26APR30-T-0.2

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market is essentially dead with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and extreme yield figures (482.6% on Yes, 15495.5% on No) unreliable indicators of true market sentiment. With only 13 days until expiration and a 13¢ spread, the market lacks sufficient liquidity to execute meaningful trades, suggesting traders are avoiding this contract entirely. The high Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicates significant uncertainty about the Q1 2026 Euro area GDP flash estimate, which may explain the abandonment—this is a low-conviction market where consensus hasn't formed.

Resolution rules

If Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above -0.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 501.8%

IY (No) 16112.3%

Adj IY 8056%

CRI 6

Overround 4.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	501.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16112.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8056%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

13¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 1:10:42 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 12:53:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXEZGDPQOQF-26APR30-T-0.2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →