Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.6%?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.6%?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 590.9% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 590.9% implied yield on the Yes side. The 12¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price level, and with only 11 days until expiry and resolution imminent, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish meaningful odds on whether German Q1 2026 GDP growth will exceed -0.6% QoQ. The cliff risk index of 6 suggests significant uncertainty around the actual resolution outcome, indicating traders should be cautious about relying on this pricing given the illiquidity and approaching deadline.
Resolution rules
If Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above -0.6 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEGDPQOQF-26APR30-T-0.6 yes 100