What is the current probability for "Will Luka Doncic be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 30, 2026. 61 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Luka Doncic be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 19299.5% and 18.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Luka Doncic be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team?

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Luka Doncic be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing June 30, 2026. The 3¢ price reflects an extremely bearish view of Doncic making 2nd Team All-Pro, implying traders believe he'll either make 1st Team or miss the honor entirely—a reasonable assessment given his historical caliber.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 0/2¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $3,618.54·Closes Jun 30, 2026·61d remaining

KXNBA2NDTEAM-26-LDON

Analysis

13d ago

The 3¢ price reflects an extremely bearish view of Doncic making 2nd Team All-Pro, implying traders believe he'll either make 1st Team or miss the honor entirely—a reasonable assessment given his historical caliber. The astronomical 15,815% implied yield on Yes positions indicates severe mispricing risk, though the thin $2,507.54 open interest and modest $1,126.54 daily volume suggest low liquidity could be driving the extreme odds rather than genuine conviction. With 75 days to resolution and a neutral regime score, this market appears underpriced relative to Doncic's track record, but the illiquidity makes it a poor vehicle for capitalizing on that inefficiency.

Resolution rules

If Luka Doncic is selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 19299.5%

IY (No) 18.5%

Adj IY 3216%

CRI 32

Overround 3.6%

LAS 0.67

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	19299.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	18.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3216%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.67	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/30/2026, 10:24:23 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 10:23:45 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBA2NDTEAM-26-LDON yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →