Will Manchester City win the FA Cup?

Manchester City is priced at a 65% win probability with a notably wide spread (2¢) and extremely thin liquidity at just $357.38 in 24-hour volume relative to $37,760 open interest, suggesting potential execution challenges for larger positions. The implied yield on the "No" side (1438.9%) is dramatically elevated compared to the "Yes" side (496.3%), indicating the market may be underpricing City's chances or reflecting significant tail risk premium with 43 days to expiry. The neutral regime score and modest 1¢ price movement over seven days suggest stable sentiment, though the high cliff risk index warrants caution around late-stage volatility near the May 31 resolution date.

Resolution rules

If Manchester City wins the FA Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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