Will MIBR win the LOUD vs. MIBR Valorant match?

89¢

Bid/Ask 83/89¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $10·OI $56·Closes May 3, 2026·15d remaining

KXVALORANTGAME-26APR182000LOUDMIBR-MIBR

7-day price45 snapshots · 4 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

MIBR is priced at an extremely high 89¢ implied probability, yet the market shows severe illiquidity with only $10 in 24-hour volume and $56 open interest, suggesting this price may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical No-side implied yield of 11,935% and realized volatility of 14,244% indicate extreme pricing distortion, likely driven by minimal trading activity rather than fundamental confidence in MIBR's chances. With 15 days to resolution and a 6¢ spread, this market appears mispriced and illiquid—the high Yes probability could be an artifact of thin order books rather than genuine market belief.

Resolution rules

If MIBR wins the VCT Americas Stage 1 2026: LOUD vs. MIBR Valorant match originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 500.7%

IY (No) 11935.3%

Adj IY 10929%

CRI 5

RV 14244%

VR 10.00

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	500.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11935.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	10929%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	14244%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	10.00	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.08	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 1:43:07 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 1:38:50 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXVALORANTGAME-26APR182000LOUDMIBR-MIBR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →