Will Michael Tubbs win the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor election?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Michael Tubbs win the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor election?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $122 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $122 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread. The 473.3% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction about Tubbs's chances. With 566 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this contract has ample time for price discovery, but traders should expect significant slippage given the minimal order book depth.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Michael Tubbs wins the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCALIEUTENANTGOV-26NOV03-MTUB yes 100