Will Josh Fryday win the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 91% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
91%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
438 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Fiona Ma win the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor election
Will Fiona Ma win the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor election?: Fiona Ma
KXCALIEUTENANTGOV-26NOV03-FMA
Analysis
The current 49% probability indicates a near-even outcome for Josh Fryday in the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor race, suggesting the market views him as competitive but facing meaningful headwinds. California's Democratic lean and voter registration advantage typically favor Democratic candidates in statewide races, which could work against Fryday if he is the Republican nominee. Conversely, strong incumbent performance, name recognition, or favorable primary momentum could improve his position. The general election on November 3, 2026, will resolve this contract. Key intermediate events include the March 2026 California primary results, which will determine the final matchup and provide clearer signals about voter turnout and preference intensity. Campaign fundraising reports and polling data released throughout the spring and fall will offer concrete evidence for market reassessment.
- ›California voter registration advantage: Democrats hold roughly 46% registration vs. Republicans at 24%, historically constraining non-Democratic statewide candidates
- ›Fryday's primary performance and final general election opponent: winning the primary decisively or facing a weak Democratic nominee could shift probability substantially
- ›Turnout patterns and enthusiasm: 2026 midterm dynamics will differ from 2024, potentially affecting whether Fryday's base mobilizes effectively
- ›Incumbent Lieutenant Governor status and approval ratings: if defending an incumbent seat, their popularity becomes a direct proxy for the race
- ›Campaign resources and media environment: spending disparities and earned media coverage will likely shift probabilities as the general election approaches
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (91% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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