Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q1 2026?

The market is pricing in an 86% probability of Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeding 1.0%, but the extreme implied yield on the No side (13,704%) signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns rather than genuine conviction. With only $814.5 in 24-hour volume against $67,632 open interest and just 14 days to expiry, the 1¢ spread masks thin liquidity that could create execution challenges, particularly if late-breaking economic data shifts sentiment. The recent 4¢ price decline from 88¢ over seven days, combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 5, suggests heightened volatility risk as the market approaches resolution.

Resolution rules

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade