Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

The 35¢ price reflects a 35% probability despite extraordinarily high realized volatility (728%) and an extreme implied yield of 4928% on the Yes side, suggesting either significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about whether daily Hormuz transits will spike to 60+ ships. With only 14 days to resolution and $5.85M in 24-hour volume against $17.9M open interest, the market shows reasonable liquidity but the 3¢ spread and neutral regime (0.5 score) indicate participants are genuinely uncertain, though the recent 3¢ price increase from 32¢ suggests modest bullish momentum. The 2.4 information arrivals per hour and cliff risk index of 2 suggest this market could see sharp repricing if new geopolitical or shipping data emerges before expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Indicators

Regime

Trade