Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above.... This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. This market has collapsed dramatically from 45¢ to 20¢ over seven days, suggesting recent data or geopolitical developments have sharply reduced expectations of elevated Hormuz transit activity, yet the extreme 7399.7% implied yield on Yes positions indicates severe mispricing or tail-risk hedging at these depressed levels.
Analysis
This market has collapsed dramatically from 45¢ to 20¢ over seven days, suggesting recent data or geopolitical developments have sharply reduced expectations of elevated Hormuz transit activity, yet the extreme 7399.7% implied yield on Yes positions indicates severe mispricing or tail-risk hedging at these depressed levels. With only 19 days to resolution and $357k open interest against modest $56.5k daily volume, the 1¢ spread masks potential liquidity challenges if positions need to unwind, while the 996% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 4 signal this market remains highly unstable and prone to sharp reversals on any new geopolitical news.
Resolution rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (3)
Trade
sf trade KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260501 yes 100