Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 15, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above.... This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing May 19, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing from 56¢ to 32¢ over seven days, suggesting either new bearish information about transit volumes or market correction of prior overvaluation.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing from 56¢ to 32¢ over seven days, suggesting either new bearish information about transit volumes or market correction of prior overvaluation. The extreme implied yield on the Yes side (2379%) combined with realized volatility of 548% and a Cliff Risk Index of 2 indicates high uncertainty and potential for sharp moves as the May 15 resolution date approaches, though the tight 1¢ spread suggests reasonable liquidity at current price levels. With 33 days to expiry and only $17.8k in daily volume against $156k open interest, the market appears relatively illiquid for its size, making the sharp recent price movement potentially significant for positioning.
Resolution rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (3)
Trade
sf trade KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260515 yes 100