Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7599.99 by Jan 1, 2027?

The market is pricing an even 50-50 split on the S&P 500 reaching 7600 within the next 259 days, but the asymmetric implied yields (499.6% for Yes vs. 39.7% for No) reveal significant tail risk skew favoring the upside scenario. The extreme realized volatility of 2634% and vol ratio of 12.84 suggest this contract has experienced wild swings, though current liquidity remains thin at $23.3K open interest with a wide 26¢ spread, and the recent 7-day price decline from 25¢ to 22¢ indicates modest bearish momentum despite the neutral regime. The 4/10 cliff risk score and 3.2 info arrivals per hour warrant caution on execution timing given the contract's sensitivity to market moves.

Resolution rules

If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7599.99, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade