Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 15, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sys.... This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 15, 2026. This market is pricing an 11% probability of a presidential firing attempt against Powell with just 29 days to expiry, yet the extreme 11,487% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity constraints on a binary outcome.
Analysis
This market is pricing an 11% probability of a presidential firing attempt against Powell with just 29 days to expiry, yet the extreme 11,487% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity constraints on a binary outcome. The modest $2,636 daily volume against $32,754 open interest, combined with a 1,642% realized volatility and high cliff risk index of 9, indicates this contract is highly illiquid and prone to sharp moves—the price has already jumped from 6¢ to 10¢ over seven days, suggesting thin order books are amplifying price swings. With an information arrival rate of 0.8 events per hour and neutral regime conditions, the market appears to be pricing in genuine uncertainty about near-term political developments, but the extreme yield differential suggests traders should be cautious about the reliability of this price as a true probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12-GOV1 yes 100