Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in May 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $314 open interest, making the 82¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—196.9% for Yes versus 2475.7% for No—suggest severe mispricing, likely driven by thin order books rather than genuine conviction that core CPI will exceed 2.4%. With 52 days to expiration and recent price compression from 88¢ to 78¢, this appears to be a speculative position unwinding rather than a liquid market reflecting consensus expectations.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade