Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in May 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in May 2026?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing June 10, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic price collapse over seven days, plummeting from 56¢ to 18¢, suggesting either a significant shift in inflation expectations or potential overpricing correction as May 2026 data approaches.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic price collapse over seven days, plummeting from 56¢ to 18¢, suggesting either a significant shift in inflation expectations or potential overpricing correction as May 2026 data approaches. The 3176% implied yield on Yes positions reflects extreme illiquidity ($88 daily volume, $1,179 open interest) and a 6¢ spread, making this a highly speculative micro-market where small trades could move prices substantially. With only 52 days to resolution and current core CPI running well below 2.8%, the 18% probability appears reasonable, though the cliff risk index of 5 indicates potential volatility if inflation data surprises to the upside.
Resolution rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.8% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.8 yes 100