What is the current probability for "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1915.5% and 10.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

███░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

8¢

Bid/Ask 7/8¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $13,588.816·OI $75,414.263·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0x3285179b99df57b0390e480f8e69d340e5fa38496b263225df90ef389e2958f4

7-day price30 snapshots · 49 regime

9¢8¢ current

Apr 87¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1915.5%

IY (No) 10.9%

Adj IY 684%

CRI 13

LAS 0.29

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1915.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	10.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	684%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.29	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:16:29 PM

SF edge 16.0¢ yesObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +16¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x3285179b99df57b0390e480f8e69d340e5fa38496b263225df90ef389e2958f4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →