Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 41.5 million passengers in Q1 2026?

The market is pricing in a 73% probability of United exceeding 41.5 million Q1 passengers, with the price rising 6¢ over seven days, suggesting growing confidence in the bullish outcome. However, the extremely asymmetric implied yields—494% for Yes versus 2448% for No—indicate severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns, with only $121.72 in open interest and a 9¢ spread reflecting thin market depth. With 33 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, traders should be cautious of potential sharp repricing as Q1 earnings approach, particularly given the neutral regime score suggests limited directional conviction from broader market conditions.

Resolution rules

If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 41500000.0 passengers in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade