Will United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 424.5?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above.... This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (98%) that shelter CPI will exceed 424.5 by April 2026, yet the astronomical 8,130% implied yield on the No side and near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (98%) that shelter CPI will exceed 424.5 by April 2026, yet the astronomical 8,130% implied yield on the No side and near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. The sharp 17-cent price rally over seven days combined with minimal open interest of just $198 and a wide 13-cent spread indicates this is a thinly-traded contract where the extreme odds may not reflect fundamental forecasting but rather thin order books and low participation.
Resolution rules
If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 424.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSHELTERCPI-26MAY12-T424.5 yes 100