Will UST Par Yield Curve (3M) for Q2 2026 be above 3.50%
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
53 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will UST Par Yield Curve (3M) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%
Will UST Par Yield Curve (3M) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%?: Above 4.00%
KX3MTBILL-26JUN30-T4.00
Analysis
This contract predicts whether the 3-month US Treasury yield will trade above 3.50% during the second quarter of 2026. Currently priced at 21%, the market indicates a low probability of this occurring. Treasury yields are primarily driven by Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data. The main factors influencing this prediction are the Fed's interest rate decisions through Q2 2026 and incoming economic data on inflation and employment. The May 2026 Consumer Price Index release and any Federal Open Market Committee announcements will be key drivers of market expectations. If inflation remains elevated or the Fed signals higher rates, yields could rise above 3.50%; conversely, economic weakness or Fed rate cuts would likely keep yields below this level. The contract resolves based on actual 3-month Treasury yields during April-June 2026.
- ›Federal Reserve policy stance and any rate decisions announced during Q1-Q2 2026
- ›Inflation data releases, particularly CPI and PCE readings, relative to Fed targets
- ›Employment data and economic growth indicators that influence Fed expectations
- ›Market expectations for rate cuts or holds, reflected in Fed funds futures contracts
- ›Geopolitical or financial events that could create flight-to-safety demand for Treasury securities
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.