ABA League
Leader sits at 49% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Partizan Mozzart Bet
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Winner: Dubai Basketball
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 20, 2026
225 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
ABA League: Winner
ABA League: Winner: Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet
0xc21832…bc2f
ABA League: Winner: Spartak Office Shoes
0x5e8060…b776
ABA League: Winner: Budućnost VOLI
0x04ccc8…bb0b
ABA League: Winner: Bosna BH Telecom
0xe1f5e7…a8a0
ABA League: Winner: Cedevita Olimpija
0xf2664d…7323
ABA League: Winner: Dubai Basketball
0xeefeb4…ee9a
ABA League: Winner: U-BT Cluj-Napoca
0x2d9c19…7f54
ABA League: Winner: Partizan Mozzart Bet
0x4cfed7…8799
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations for which team will win the ABA League, a top professional basketball competition in the Balkans. The 44% aggregate figure masks a significant divergence between markets: Kalshi shows minimal activity at 3%, while Polymarket's 14 contracts cluster around 46%, with Mega, FMP, Budućnost, and Zadar all priced nearly identically. The ABA League season typically concludes in spring, with playoffs and finals determining the champion. Resolution depends on actual tournament outcomes and contract specifications across venues. Low trading volumes on most contracts suggest limited recent interest, which can make probabilities less reliable as real-time indicators of informed opinion.
- ›Polymarket's 14 contracts drive the aggregated probability, while Kalshi's single contract at 3% has minimal influence on the overall figure
- ›Four separate winner contracts on Polymarket are priced within 1 percentage point (46-47¢), suggesting either uncertainty between teams or incomplete market differentiation
- ›Trading volume is extremely low across most contracts ($0-17 in 24 hours), indicating thin liquidity that may not reflect sustained informed trading
- ›Kalshi and Polymarket's 43-percentage-point gap indicates either different contract definitions, customer bases, or information sets between the two venues
- ›The near-identical pricing of multiple distinct team outcomes suggests traders may be arbitraging across contracts rather than making fundamental probability assessments
What moved the line
- May 6Winner: U-BT Cluj-Napoca↑10pp36→46¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Winner: Spartak Office Shoes↑9pp37→46¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Winner: Dubai Basketball↑5pp42→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Winner: Spartak Office Shoes↓4pp46→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Winner: U-BT Cluj-Napoca↓3pp42→39¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.