American Hockey League
Leader sits at 49% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Colorado Eagles
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Winner: Springfield Thunderb
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
American Hockey League: Winner
American Hockey League: Winner: Chicago Wolves
0x8563ed…137c
American Hockey League: Winner: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
0xe4cdef…acd7
American Hockey League: Winner: Toronto Marlies
0x21c429…bf18
American Hockey League: Winner: Springfield Thunderbirds
0x4f6be2…8cf9
American Hockey League: Winner: Ontario Reign
0x15f01c…bddb
American Hockey League: Winner: Manitoba Moose
0xea0b44…53ef
American Hockey League: Winner: Laval Rocket
0x12950a…e8d3
American Hockey League: Winner: Henderson Silver Knights
0x06fb9f…0813
American Hockey League: Winner: Grand Rapids Griffins
0x361369…02be
American Hockey League: Winner: Colorado Eagles
0x441391…bae9
American Hockey League: Winner: Coachella Valley Firebirds
0x91ea0f…24aa
American Hockey League: Winner: Cleveland Monsters
0x41b3a1…1bfc
Analysis
This 47% probability reflects traders' assessment of whether the American Hockey League will crown a champion in 2026. The figure sits between a 24% probability on Kalshi and an average of 48% across 19 Polymarket contracts, a significant 24-percentage-point gap suggesting disagreement about league stability or playoff likelihood. The main drivers of this probability are the AHL's operational continuity and whether the 2025-26 season completes its playoff cycle on schedule. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the AHL's playoff outcomes in spring 2026, as early eliminations or scheduling disruptions could alter the narrative. Factors pushing probability higher include normal league operations and historical precedent of successful championships; factors pushing lower would be organizational challenges or unforeseen operational obstacles.
- ›Kalshi's 24% probability is substantially lower than Polymarket's 48%, indicating exchanges disagree on whether the AHL definitively completes a championship award in 2026
- ›All top contracts cluster around 46-48 cents on Polymarket, suggesting multiple teams carry similar odds rather than one dominant favorite
- ›Polymarket contracts show zero 24-hour volume while the Kalshi baseball contract shows $6,073 volume, indicating low market activity and potentially less reliable price discovery for AHL markets
- ›The 2025-26 AHL season would need to progress through regular season and playoffs without major disruption to resolve positively by 2026 year-end
- ›The contract structure tracks binary championship occurrence rather than probability of a specific team, making operational continuation the key variable rather than competitive unpredictability
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.