Anime Awards
Leader sits at 95% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Best Isekai Anime Winner: Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Best Anime Song Winner: "IRI
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$585
thin orderbook
Closes
May 23, 2026
14 days
Venue
Polymarket
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Anime Awards
Anime Awards: Anime of the Year Winner: Takopi's Original Sin
0xd03042…9497
Anime Awards: Anime of the Year Winner: DAN DA DAN Season 2
0xfb5c23…b04d
Anime Awards: Anime of the Year Winner: Gachiakuta
0xcf9286…a7ba
Anime Awards: Film of the Year Winner: Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc
0x980766…8665
Anime Awards: Anime of the Year Winner: My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON
0x4b93dc…1b4b
Anime Awards: Film of the Year Winner: 100 Meters
0xa0453c…f6e4
Anime Awards: Film of the Year Winner: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle
0x9c5467…a811
Anime Awards: Best Anime Song Winner: "IRIS OUT" by Kenshi Yonezu (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc)
0x831c1c…f2ac
Anime Awards: Best Isekai Anime Winner: Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3
0x4c8392…72da
Anime Awards: Best Character Design Winner: Gachiakuta
0x99afeb…5c2b
Anime Awards: Best Original Anime Winner: ZENSHU
0x0b8dc5…7004
Anime Awards: Best Isekai Anime Winner: Disney Twisted-Wonderland: The Animation — Season 1 "Episode of Heartslabyul"
0xa6e90b…cad5
Anime Awards: Best Original Anime Winner: Lazarus
0x2e8542…649a
Anime Awards: Best Character Design Winner: The Apothecary Diaries Season 2
0xe572ef…b15f
Anime Awards: Best Animation Winner: Gachiakuta
0xf8fee5…a414
Anime Awards: Best Animation Winner: Takopi's Original Sin
0xb4563c…f68e
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that a specific anime title or category winner will be selected at upcoming anime awards. The leading contract at 71% suggests high confidence in one particular outcome, likely driven by voting patterns, critical acclaim, or industry momentum from earlier in 2026. The market remains competitive, with a runner-up at 67%, indicating meaningful uncertainty. Key drivers include the timing of award voting windows, which typically occur in spring for annual ceremonies, and relative trading volume concentrated on "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" at 43 cents, suggesting this is the favored Anime of the Year candidate. Resolution depends on the official award announcement date—presumably scheduled for late May or June 2026 based on typical ceremony calendars. Traders are pricing in substantial disagreement: the gap between the leader (71%) and runner-up (67%) is narrow, and combined probability across top three outcomes exceeds 100%, reflecting overlapping contract structures in this multi-outcome market.
- ›My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON commands 43¢ with $1,800 daily volume, significantly outpacing other Anime of the Year candidates by trading activity and price
- ›The leader (71%) and runner-up (67%) are within 4 percentage points, indicating genuine market disagreement rather than consensus
- ›Total liquidity appears concentrated in the Anime of the Year category rather than evenly distributed across 20 contracts, suggesting structural imbalance
- ›Award voting typically closes 4-8 weeks before ceremony dates; the absence of announced winner information as of early May 2026 leaves substantial resolution uncertainty
- ›Category winners (e.g., Best Anime Song at 31¢) trade at materially lower prices than Anime of the Year frontrunners, suggesting market prioritizes year-end general awards over specific categories
What moved the line
- May 6Best Animation Winner: Takopi's Original Sin↓29pp39→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Best Character Design Winner: The Apothecary Diaries Season 2↓25pp38→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Anime of the Year Winner: My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON↓24pp72→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Best Character Design Winner: Gachiakuta↑24pp48→72¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Best Original Anime Winner: Lazarus↑24pp13→37¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.