2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime
Leader sits at 40% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
ZENSHU
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Lazarus
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$57
thin orderbook
Closes
May 23, 2027
379 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime?: Lazarus
KXANIMEBOA-26-LAZ
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime?: Tie
KXANIMEBOA-26-TIE
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime?: ZENSHU
KXANIMEBOA-26-ZEN
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime?: Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX
KXANIMEBOA-26-MOB
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime?: DIGIMON BEATBREAK
KXANIMEBOA-26-DIG
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime?: Apocalypse Hotel
KXANIMEBOA-26-APO
Analysis
This market reflects a 35% probability that a specific anime wins the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Original Anime. The current leader faces competition from five other candidates, with the runner-up holding 19% implied probability. Trading volume remains modest at Kalshi, suggesting limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. The probability will shift based on industry buzz, critical reception of nominees as they air, and patterns from prior Crunchyroll Award voting. The award ceremony itself—typically held in the spring following the voting period—will definitively resolve the market once announced. Until then, traders are pricing in expected quality, narrative momentum, and historical voting patterns for similar categories. Notably, other Crunchyroll categories show stronger consensus, with Best Anime Song at 61¢, suggesting this Best Original Anime category reflects genuinely fragmented sentiment rather than clear frontrunner dominance.
- ›The winner trades at 35¢ while the runner-up is at 19¢, indicating neither candidate has majority backing; five other outcomes are split across remaining probability
- ›Kalshi shows total volume under $200 in 24h across the category, suggesting limited professional trading activity and potentially stale price discovery
- ›Best Anime Song in the same award cycle shows 61¢ pricing versus 35¢ here, indicating markedly different levels of consensus across categories
- ›The Best Continuing Series contracts show front-runner ONE PIECE at 47¢ versus Solo Leveling Season 2 at 8¢, demonstrating how category type affects vote concentration
- ›Crunchyroll award voting typically closes 1-2 months before the ceremony; current date of May 3, 2026 suggests voting may have already concluded or be imminent
What moved the line
- May 6Apocalypse Hotel↓15pp19→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 6ZENSHU↑12pp36→48¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Lazarus↑10pp6→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 7ZENSHU↓5pp48→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Lazarus↑3pp16→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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