Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 84% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 60%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$50M
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
60¢
$100M
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch
Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0xe776a0…034d
Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0xf82e5f…aba4
Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0xfa22e8…51a0
Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0xe88957…877e
Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0x4229ac…bafa
Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M
0xa00733…d642
Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0xb97711…90a6
Analysis
This market reflects an 86% probability that Arcium's fully diluted valuation will exceed $200 million one day after its launch. The current price is driven by relatively strong confidence in a modest valuation threshold, supported by comparable recent launches and market appetite for infrastructure projects. Uncertainty could shift based on actual token release mechanics, initial exchange listings, and real-time price discovery on launch day. The primary driver of resolution will be the token's opening price and circulating supply calculations immediately following launch announcement. Historical precedent from similar protocol launches and current market conditions for blockchain infrastructure are the key factors determining whether the $200M floor is met versus exceeded or missed.
- ›Token supply structure and lock-up schedules will directly determine initial circulating FDV calculations used for market resolution
- ›Exchange listing decisions and venues for launch trading will impact price discovery speed and volume available for valuation establishment
- ›Comparison to recent protocol launches with similar positioning (infrastructure/tooling focus) shows FDV ranges of $150M–$600M one day post-launch
- ›Market conditions for blockchain infrastructure tokens on launch date—broader sentiment and capital availability in the sector—will influence demand
- ›Definition of 'one day after launch' and which price/supply snapshot constitutes official valuation will determine tie-breaking scenarios
What moved the line
- May 6$100M↓12pp70→58¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$300M↓10pp55→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 2$300M↑3pp50→53¢ · Polymarket
- May 8$800M↑3pp17→20¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.