Will Arsenal win at least 3 trophies this season: 3+ Trophies
Leader sits at 84% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1+ Trophies
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
2+ Trophies
Spread
76pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
37 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Arsenal win at least
Analysis
Arsenal's chances of winning at least 3 trophies this season stand at 56%, reflecting strong market confidence in the club's capability across multiple competitions. The Premier League, FA Cup, League Cup, and Europa League represent viable paths to a triple or better. The probability is elevated by Arsenal's current squad quality and competition structure, but tempered by the statistical rarity of winning three major trophies in a single season and the presence of other strong contenders across each competition. Key uncertainties include injury patterns to key players, managerial consistency, and performance trajectories in January-to-May fixtures when fatigue compounds. The season's outcome will be substantially clarified by late spring performance, particularly results in cup finals and title run-in fixtures.
- ›Arsenal must perform simultaneously in four major competitions through May 2026, requiring both depth and consistency across a demanding fixture list
- ›Historical precedent shows English clubs rarely win 3+ trophies in one season; this has occurred only a handful of times in recent decades
- ›Player injury status and squad rotation decisions during overlapping fixture congestion will directly determine whether Arsenal can sustain performance across all competitions
- ›Liverpool, Manchester City, and other rivals' performance levels directly affect Arsenal's probability, particularly in the Premier League title race
- ›Cup draw complexity and seeding mechanics in FA Cup and League Cup will determine fixture scheduling difficulty and potential bottleneck periods
What moved the line
- May 61+ Trophies↑35pp51→86¢ · Kalshi
- May 62+ Trophies↑30pp3→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 21+ Trophies↓12pp60→48¢ · Kalshi
- May 32+ Trophies↓7pp10→3¢ · Kalshi
- May 31+ Trophies↑3pp48→51¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (84% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.